A test of whether rates of speciation were unusually high during the Cambrian radiation.

The Cambrian radiation represents an interval when nearly 20 animal phyla appear in the fossil record in a short geological time span; however, whether this radiation also represents a period of extremely rapid speciation remains unclear. Here, a stochastic framework is used to test the null hypothesis that diversity changes in one of the dominant Early Cambrian groups, the olenelloid trilobites, could be produced by tempos of speciation known to have operated during later time periods. Two continuous-time models, the Yule model and the birth and death process model, and one discrete-time model, the Bienaymé-Galton-Watson branching process model, were used. No statistical evidence for uniquely high rates of speciation during the radiation in these trilobites was found when the continuous-time models were used with low or moderate extinction rates, the rates typically associated with the Cambrian radiation, although the p values are fairly low or, in one case, significant when high extinction rates were used. However, rates of speciation were higher than the average Phanerozoic rates of speciation. The discrete-time model produced equivocal results: either rates were unusually high or the model is inapplicable during the Cambrian radiation. This suggests that there was nothing unique about evolutionary processes relating to the tempo of speciation during the Cambrian radiation.